Blue Wall: His success heavily influenced Donald Trump’s victory in the latest US presidential election in winning states previously considered Democratic strongholds—known as the “blue wall.” These states, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, had historically voted Democrat but flipped to Trump in 2016. This time, they did so again, helping him secure the presidency.
What is the “Blue Wall”?
The “blue wall” refers to states traditionally supporting Democratic candidates in national elections. These include Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and several others. From 1992 to 2012, these states consistently voted Democratic in presidential elections. In 2016, however, Trump managed to flip these states, contributing to his upset victory over Hillary Clinton. 
The Red Mirage Effect
On Election Night, early results seemed to favor Trump, especially in key battleground states. This initial red wave was expected due to more Republicans voting in person while Democrats often vote by mail. This phenomenon, called the “red mirage,” occurred in 2020 as well, when early results showed Trump leading, only for Biden to catch up once mail-in ballots were counted.
In 2024, however, Trump’s lead held up. By early Wednesday, the Associated Press had projected Trump with 277 Electoral College votes—more than enough to win. This included key wins in Michigan, a blue-wall state that Trump had also won in 2016.
The Key Swing States Behind the Blue Wall
Three states were particularly crucial in breaking the blue wall this time: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Here’s how Trump did in these states:
Pennsylvania: Trump won by two percentage points, securing 19 Electoral votes.
Wisconsin: Trump won by 0.9 percentage points, gaining 10 Electoral votes.
Michigan: With 99% of the votes counted, Trump led by 1.4 percentage points, taking 15 Electoral votes.
Why Did Trump Win Again?
Several factors contributed to Trump’s success in these states:
1. Pandemic Fatigue: In 2020, Joe Biden managed to reclaim these states from Trump, partly due to dissatisfaction with how the COVID-19 pandemic was handled. However, as the pandemic receded and voters grew frustrated with ongoing economic issues, many returned to Trump, who had promised economic recovery.
2. Economic Concerns: The economy and cost of living were top concerns for voters. A national exit poll showed that 51% of voters trusted Trump more than Harris to handle the economy. Many Democrats failed to connect with working-class voters focused on jobs, healthcare, and inflation.
3. Choice of Running Mate: Harris’s pick of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her vice-presidential candidate was seen as a misstep. In crucial battleground states like Pennsylvania, Walz didn’t help, where Trump won by appealing to working-class voters.
4. Healthcare and Other Local Issues: In Wisconsin, the opioid crisis and rising healthcare costs were crucial issues. Trump’s promise to find an alternative to the Affordable Care Act resonated with voters, while Harris’s policies did not appeal to the state’s working-class population.
5. Middle East Conflict: In Michigan, tensions surrounding the Israel-Gaza conflict played a role. Michigan has a large Arab American population, many of whom were disillusioned with both major candidates’ positions on the war, pushing some voters toward third-party candidates like Jill Stein.
The Role of Third-Party Candidates
Jill Stein of the Green Party took votes away from Harris in critical states. In Michigan, for example, Stein won about 109,000 votes—enough to influence the outcome, as Trump won the state by just 81,750 votes.
Conclusion
Trump’s victory in the blue wall states showed the importance of appealing to working-class voters, focusing on economic concerns, and understanding local issues. His success in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan highlighted the key factors that shaped this year’s election—issues that Democrats failed to address effectively.
